TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

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4,364

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5

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Where will it rain on Election Day?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

Where will it rain on Election Day?

Oct 29, 2026, 5:30 PM EST - Nov 4, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$21,905
Volume 24h:
$19,475N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$19,512
615%

St. Louis

 - Kalshi

St. Louis - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 4, 2026

Time left: 01d:16h:23m

Will it rain in St. Louis on Election Day?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 3,887%
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

St. Louis

Trade
99%
1%
Yes 98¢No 11¢
9¢
N/A
$2,795
279,361%
N/A
$2,795
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

College Station

Trade
96%
1%
Yes 99¢No 3¢
2¢
N/A
$960
95,947%
N/A
$960
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

San Antonio

Trade
96%
18%
Yes 98¢No 15¢
13¢
N/A
$96
201%
N/A
$63
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Austin

Trade
95%
3%
Yes 99¢No 13¢
12¢
N/A
$747
129%
N/A
$365
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Springfield, MO

Trade
93%
Yes 94¢No 7¢
1¢
N/A
$685
68,400%
N/A
$575
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Napa

Trade
92%
Yes 88¢No 28¢
16¢
N/A
$971
84,295%
N/A
$871
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Madison

Trade
89%
Yes 96¢No 10¢
6¢
N/A
$884
0%
N/A
$884
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Chicago

Trade
86%
Yes 95¢No 18¢
13¢
N/A
$125
11%
N/A
$125
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Minneapolis

Trade
86%
11%
Yes 87¢No 21¢
8¢
N/A
$17
1,611%
N/A
$17
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

San Francisco

Trade
85%
8%
Yes 93¢No 12¢
5¢
N/A
$614
11%
N/A
$586
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Pensacola

Trade
82%
Yes 86¢No 23¢
9¢
N/A
$522
0%
N/A
$313
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Houston

Trade
81%
Yes 93¢No 22¢
15¢
N/A
$95
137%
N/A
$85
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

San Jose

Trade
78%
15%
Yes 78¢No 34¢
12¢
N/A
$360
494%
N/A
$298
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Tampa

Trade
78%
17%
Yes 78¢No 49¢
27¢
N/A
$81
914%
N/A
$79
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Des Moines

Trade
77%
7%
Yes 86¢No 52¢
38¢
N/A
$298
96%
N/A
$297
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

West Palm Beach

Trade
75%
Yes 95¢No 89¢
84¢
N/A
$16
0%
N/A
$16
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Portland, Maine

Trade
74%
Yes 74¢No 42¢
16¢
N/A
$949
0%
N/A
$935
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

St. Petersburg

Trade
70%
Yes 70¢No 67¢
37¢
N/A
$692
0%
N/A
$692
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Denver

Trade
54%
Yes 53¢No 63¢
16¢
N/A
$377
0%
N/A
$262
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

New Orleans

Trade
50%
14%
Yes 48¢No 65¢
13¢
N/A
$492
3,256%
N/A
$431
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Cincinnati / Covington

Trade
28%
Yes 26¢No 96¢
22¢
N/A
$83
0%
N/A
$83
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Louisville

Trade
27%
9%
Yes 29¢No 87¢
16¢
N/A
$331
502%
N/A
$203
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Indianapolis

Trade
23%
Yes 23¢No 93¢
16¢
N/A
$257
5%
N/A
$252
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

Seattle

Trade
22%
16%
Yes 19¢No 90¢
9¢
N/A
$65
2,972%
N/A
$64
1d 16h 23m
Active
kalshi

San Diego

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 98¢
16¢
N/A
$76
0%
N/A
$76
1d 16h 23m
Active
Total markets: 25 of 49

Description

This event tracks whether measurable rainfall will occur in various U.S. cities on a specific date, offering insights into localized weather conditions for November 3, 2026. Each location's outcome depends solely on its own precipitation measurement, with no aggregation across cities.

Kalshi

Each market evaluates whether measurable precipitation occurs at a specified airport on November 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome requires strictly more than 0 inches of total precipitation, with trace amounts or missing data counted as 0 inches. All measurements are sourced exclusively from The Weather Company's official reports at https://weather.com/kalshi, ensuring uniform data collection and verification across all locations. The resolution hinges solely on these verified readings for each individual city.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts regarding rainfall. Unlike polls or expert opinions, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. This dynamic approach can sometimes lead to forecasts that differ from conventional wisdom, as traders weigh a wider range of factors and update their beliefs in real-time. The market’s price movements represent a constantly evolving assessment of the likelihood of rain on Election Day, offering a unique perspective.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether it will rain in a given city on Election Day. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific city, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of rain. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined entirely by supply and demand, with no external factors influencing the valuation.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether official weather data from the National Weather Service indicates measurable precipitation – at least 0.01 inches – in the specified cities on Election Day. The exact timing of resolution may vary slightly depending on the availability of official data, but it will occur as soon as possible after the close of polls on November 4th.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Changes in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those from the National Weather Service, will likely drive price movements. Unexpected shifts in weather patterns, such as the development of a major storm system, could cause substantial volatility. Even news reports about potential rainfall or drought conditions could influence trader behavior. Increased media coverage of the weather forecast leading up to Election Day could also increase volume and impact the prices within this market.