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When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
kalshi

When will the next Atlantic hurricane form?

Volume:
$109,298

Before Oct 15, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Oct 15, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 10:53 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Oct 15, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$47,757
N/A
N/A
$30,362
4w 11h
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,456
N/A
N/A
$2,865
4w 11h
Yes
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,327
N/A
N/A
$3,128
4w 11h
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 15, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,929
N/A
N/A
$2,830
4w 11h
Yes
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,462
N/A
N/A
$9,868
4w 11h
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,021
N/A
N/A
$9,406
4w 11h
No
kalshi

Before Sep 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,981
N/A
N/A
$5,580
4w 11h
No
kalshi

Before Aug 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,365
N/A
N/A
$1,134
4w 11h
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks whether a hurricane with wind speeds of at least 74 mph will form in the Atlantic during 2026. The outcome depends on the timing of the first such storm's formation throughout the year.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if a hurricane with sustained wind speeds of at least 74 mph forms in the Atlantic at any point before any of the specified dates from August 15 to December 1, 2026. Each rule provides an increasingly later deadline, meaning the market will close as Yes from the moment the first qualifying storm occurs up until the final deadline on December 1. If no such hurricane forms by December 1, 2026, the event resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for the timing of the next Atlantic hurricane reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinions. While forecasters often provide seasonal outlooks and probabilities, this market allows for a continuously updated assessment based on real-money bets. Currently, the market is pricing in a range of potential formation dates, and it will be interesting to see if these align with or diverge from the predictions made by meteorologists and hurricane specialists throughout the season. This offers a dynamic view not always captured in static forecasts.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the formation of the next Atlantic hurricane is verifiable from credible public reporting. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be a key source for determining the official formation date. The market will settle to 100 for the first date on which the NHC officially declares an Atlantic hurricane has formed, regardless of its intensity or location. Traders should monitor the NHC’s announcements as the Atlantic hurricane season progresses to understand the potential resolution date.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Increased or decreased activity in the Atlantic basin, such as the formation of tropical waves or disturbances, will likely impact prices. Shifts in long-range weather patterns, like El Niño or La Niña conditions, are also key catalysts. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) regarding the potential for hurricane development will also strongly influence trader behavior. Finally, any major news related to climate change or ocean temperatures could also shift expectations and move the market.