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What will the White River at Indianapolis peak at during the August 2026 floods?
polymarket

What will the White River at Indianapolis peak at during the August 2026 floods?

Volume:
$14,645

Over 20 ft

 - Polymarket

Over 20 ft - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 2:34 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Over 20 ft

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$8,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

17–20 ft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,592
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14–17 ft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 14 ft

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Description

This market resolves based on the maximum (peak) gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM EDT. Each bracket includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, so every possible peak value maps to exactly one bracket (e.g., a peak of exactly 17.00 ft falls in the 17–20 ft bracket; a peak of exactly 14.00 ft falls in the 14–17 ft bracket). Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used should USGS not be available.

Polymarket

This market resolves based on the maximum (peak) gage height recorded at USGS streamgage 03353000 (White River at Indianapolis, IN) between market creation and August 31, 2026 11:59 PM EDT. Each bracket includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, so every possible peak value maps to exactly one bracket (e.g., a peak of exactly 17.00 ft falls in the 17–20 ft bracket; a peak of exactly 14.00 ft falls in the 14–17 ft bracket). Resolution is based on the peak gage height value recorded during the specified window as published by USGS at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-03353000#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D&showFieldMeasurements=true. USGS real-time data is provisional and subject to revision; the last provisional value published by USGS for the specified window as of 11:59 PM EDT September 1, 2026 governs, regardless of any USGS revision, approval, or finalization published after that time. For reference, NWS designates flood stage at this location as 16.0 feet. The primary resolution source is USGS data for streamgage 03353000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used should USGS not be available.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the current odds reflect trader sentiment about the White River's peak flow during August 2026 floods. These odds can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on historical data and climate models. Analysts often publish their projections months in advance, while market odds adjust continuously as new weather patterns, rainfall predictions, and hydrological data emerge. Comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of expected outcomes and uncertainty. Where forecasts agree, market confidence tends to be stronger; notable disagreements can signal under- or over-estimation by either group.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The peak flow measurement will be compared against the defined ranges to determine which outcome matches the recorded data, closing the market definitively.

Several key signals could shift odds in this market before Sep 1, 2026. Updated extended weather forecasts, especially for severe storm systems or persistent rainfall over the watershed, will heavily influence trader sentiment. Real-time river level data from monitoring stations, combined with reservoir release schedules upstream, may trigger rapid price adjustments. Major climate announcements — such as El Niño or La Niña developments — could also reshape expectations. As the August flood window approaches, any official emergency declarations or revised hydrological models will likely produce noticeable movement.