TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 5, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 5, 2026?

Volume:
$4,583

Magnitude of at least 5.6

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 1:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$748
N/A
N/A
$441
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$602
N/A
N/A
$398
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,943
N/A
N/A
$807
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
$333
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$199
N/A
N/A
$199
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, determined by measurements from a trusted geological authority. The focus is on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with varying thresholds defining different levels of intensity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS worldwide on September 5, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The USGS-reported magnitude at expiration is used, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Settlement may be delayed if USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0, with each market corresponding to a specific minimum magnitude requirement.