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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 3, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 3, 2026?

Volume:
$12,372

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 3, 7:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,128
N/A
N/A
$4,016
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,012
N/A
N/A
$2,012
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,585
N/A
N/A
$1,506
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,432
N/A
N/A
$1,432
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,237
N/A
N/A
$1,232
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$764
N/A
N/A
$697
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$402
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
$312
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by its magnitude as reported by a scientific authority. The outcome depends on whether any tremor reaches certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour window.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS during September 3, 2026 (UTC midnight to midnight) meets or exceeds a specific threshold. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Settlement may be delayed if USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration. Each market corresponds to a different minimum magnitude requirement, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.