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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 22, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 22, 2026?

Volume:
$9,603

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,403
N/A
N/A
$2,093
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$265
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$239
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$139
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
$24
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the severity of ground shaking reported by a leading geological survey. The focus is on the peak magnitude recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with various thresholds representing different levels of intensity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude globally on September 22, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The magnitude used for settlement is determined preferentially by the moment magnitude scale (Mw), with other primary magnitude types used if moment magnitude is unavailable. When multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all such events count toward meeting the threshold. If the USGS ComCat database is unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed according to the contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing more severe earthquake requirements.