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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 21, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 21, 2026?

Volume:
$9,454

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 20, 10:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,440
N/A
N/A
$3,438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,842
N/A
N/A
$1,632
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,959
N/A
N/A
$1,762
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,383
N/A
N/A
$1,375
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
$69
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
$63
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the severity of seismic activity reported by a leading geological authority. It focuses on the potential impact of natural disasters and helps assess preparedness and response strategies for such events.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the largest earthquake on September 21, 2026, worldwide, reaches or exceeds specified magnitude thresholds, as reported by the USGS. The settlement relies on the highest magnitude recorded by USGS during the 24-hour period from midnight to just before midnight UTC on that date. Moment magnitude (Mw) is the preferred measurement type; if unavailable, the primary magnitude reported by USGS will be used. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS data is inaccessible at the time of settlement, delays may occur under contract contingencies. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the peak magnitude meets or exceeds the threshold defined for each market, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0.