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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 20, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 20, 2026?

Volume:
$11,512

Magnitude of at least 6.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 20, 3:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,669
N/A
N/A
$2,004
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,325
N/A
N/A
$1,325
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,152
N/A
N/A
$1,118
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,053
N/A
N/A
$676
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$815
N/A
N/A
$758
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$765
N/A
N/A
$729
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,271
N/A
N/A
$1,123
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,165
N/A
N/A
$636
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
$532
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the severity of seismic activity reported by a leading geological authority. It focuses on the potential impact of natural disasters and helps assess preparedness and response strategies for such events.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on September 20, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds specified thresholds ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. Settlement relies on the USGS-reported magnitude at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Delays may occur if USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, with higher thresholds indicating more severe seismic activity.