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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 15, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 15, 2026?

Volume:
$3,131

Magnitude of at least 7.0

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,149
N/A
N/A
$1,149
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$803
N/A
N/A
$617
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$277
N/A
N/A
$275
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$209
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$133
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
$124
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
$116
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend entirely on recorded data from that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on September 15, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The determining magnitude is the USGS-reported value displayed at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0, with each market requiring a higher minimum magnitude for resolution to 'Yes.'