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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 12, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 12, 2026?

Volume:
$213

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
$24
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It assesses seismic activity levels against various strength thresholds to determine outcomes. The focus is on the peak earthquake magnitude recorded during a defined 24-hour period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS during September 12, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specific threshold ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market "Yes." If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a distinct magnitude threshold, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.