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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 11, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 11, 2026?

Volume:
$4,137

Magnitude of at least 6.6

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,965
N/A
N/A
$1,528
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$917
N/A
N/A
$861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
$489
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$477
N/A
N/A
$424
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$278
N/A
N/A
$221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a recognized geological authority. The focus is on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with varying thresholds determining different levels of outcome severity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS during September 11, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving markets for 'Yes'. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0 magnitude, with each market requiring a higher minimum magnitude for a 'Yes' outcome.