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What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 10, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Sep 10, 2026?

Volume:
$1,751

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 3:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
$552
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,070
N/A
N/A
$1,066
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
$69
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$55
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the intensity of seismic activity rather than the number of events or locations. Outcomes depend on whether the strongest tremor meets or exceeds set thresholds.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the largest earthquake on September 10, 2026, as recorded by the USGS between midnight and 23:59 UTC, reaches or exceeds specified magnitude thresholds ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. Settlement relies on the USGS-reported magnitude at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Delays may occur if USGS data is unavailable at expiration. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, with higher thresholds requiring increasingly intense seismic events to resolve positively.