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What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
polymarket

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?

Volume:
$3,571

5.9 to 6.0

 - Polymarket

5.9 to 6.0 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 20, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 4:02 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5.9 to 6.0

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,274
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5.5 to 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

6.1 or more

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 5.3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.7 to 5.8

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5.3 to 5.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 19, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 19, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 19, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 19, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 19, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 19, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 20, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the October 2026 earthquake market tracks the implied probability of different earthquake magnitudes occurring on October 19, 2026. You’ll find the current odds for each magnitude range, along with the total 24-hour volume traded, which currently stands at $698. The total volume for this market is $1,771. This allows you to see how traders are collectively assessing the likelihood of various seismic events and how actively the market is being traded.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects the aggregated predictions of many traders, offering a different perspective than individual seismological forecasts. While analysts may focus on specific geological factors and historical data, this market incorporates a broader range of information and potential influences, potentially identifying overlooked risks or probabilities. It’s important to note that analysts’ predictions are often point estimates, while this market provides a probabilistic view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different earthquake magnitude ranges. The price of each share reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that magnitude occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This creates a dynamic pricing system that responds to new information and changing perceptions of risk. The current top outcome, as determined by trading volume, is not available at this time.

This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded on October 19, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from established seismological agencies and publicly available records. The resolution will be based on the Richter scale or a comparable, widely accepted magnitude scale, ensuring a clear and objective determination of the outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major geological events, such as significant aftershocks in known seismic zones, could increase perceived risk and shift trading activity. New research from seismologists regarding earthquake prediction or fault line activity could also influence the market. Additionally, any unexpected geopolitical events or unusual seismic patterns detected in the months leading up to October 19, 2026, could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.