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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 9, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 9, 2026?

Volume:
$23,513

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 10:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,456
N/A
N/A
$2,742
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,066
N/A
N/A
$2,600
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,630
N/A
N/A
$1,769
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,527
N/A
N/A
$1,787
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,452
N/A
N/A
$2,058
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,192
N/A
N/A
$1,724
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,865
N/A
N/A
$1,499
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,850
N/A
N/A
$1,388
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,832
N/A
N/A
$1,320
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,642
N/A
N/A
$1,640
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any earthquake meets or exceeds these thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 9, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold for each market. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Markets are structured around ascending magnitude thresholds from 5.2 to 7.0, with each market resolving to 'Yes' if any earthquake reaches its respective threshold.