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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 7, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 7, 2026?

Volume:
$10,577

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,687
N/A
N/A
$2,255
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,427
N/A
N/A
$1,486
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,225
N/A
N/A
$623
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$833
N/A
N/A
$631
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$787
N/A
N/A
$545
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$757
N/A
N/A
$646
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$744
N/A
N/A
$500
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$447
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$323
N/A
N/A
$323
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological authority. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 7, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Settlement may be delayed if USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0, with each market requiring a higher minimum magnitude for resolution to 'Yes'.