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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 6, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 6, 2026?

Volume:
$18,434

Magnitude of at least 5.8

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Closed: Oct 6, 1:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,457
N/A
N/A
$4,195
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,927
N/A
N/A
$2,077
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,880
N/A
N/A
$1,676
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,473
N/A
N/A
$1,268
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,520
N/A
N/A
$2,174
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,303
N/A
N/A
$2,121
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,153
N/A
N/A
$592
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$807
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$747
N/A
N/A
$677
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
$148
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. The focus is on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with varying thresholds indicating different levels of intensity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 6, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the value displayed at contract expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving events. Settlement may be delayed if USGS ComCat data becomes unavailable at expiration. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing more severe seismic events.