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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 5, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 5, 2026?

Volume:
$7,687

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 9:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,444
N/A
N/A
$2,404
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,221
N/A
N/A
$1,202
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,109
N/A
N/A
$916
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$616
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$530
N/A
N/A
$447
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$482
N/A
N/A
$478
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$477
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
$204
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$185
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, determined by measurements from a trusted scientific source. The focus is on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with varying thresholds defining different levels of outcome severity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS ComCat database during October 5, 2026, measured between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC. Resolution requires the magnitude to meet or exceed the specific threshold defined for each market (ranging from 5.2 to 7.0). The USGS moment magnitude (Mw) is the preferred measurement type; if unavailable, the primary magnitude type reported by USGS will be used. When multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualifying events count toward resolution. If USGS ComCat data remains unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. All markets share these core determination principles, differing only in their magnitude thresholds.