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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 4, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 4, 2026?

Volume:
$11,269

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 7:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,130
N/A
N/A
$2,011
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$900
N/A
N/A
$845
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,983
N/A
N/A
$2,744
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,784
N/A
N/A
$1,614
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,116
N/A
N/A
$1,115
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
$624
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
$555
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
$333
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$367
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any quake meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 4, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold for each market. The magnitude used for determination is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If the USGS ComCat database is unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed according to the contract contingencies. Markets are structured sequentially with increasing magnitude thresholds from 5.2 to 7.0, where higher-threshold markets are more stringent and less likely to resolve to 'Yes' than lower-threshold ones.