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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$12,380

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 31, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,762
N/A
N/A
$1,096
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,306
N/A
N/A
$1,098
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,507
N/A
N/A
$840
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,491
N/A
N/A
$971
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,146
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
$698
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
$403
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$582
N/A
N/A
$419
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
$379
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$241
N/A
N/A
$190
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, determined by measurements from a trusted geological authority. The focus is on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, with varying thresholds defining different levels of impact.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS ComCat database during October 30, 2026, measured between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC. Resolution requires that at least one earthquake reaches or exceeds the specific magnitude threshold stated in each market (ranging from 5.2 to 7.0). The authoritative magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualifying events count toward resolution. Should USGS ComCat data remain unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed under the contract’s contingency provisions. Each market operates independently, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.