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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 3, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 3, 2026?

Volume:
$14,137

Magnitude of at least 5.8

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 7:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,720
N/A
N/A
$4,047
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,497
N/A
N/A
$1,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,366
N/A
N/A
$1,150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,462
N/A
N/A
$1,013
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$646
N/A
N/A
$552
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$378
N/A
N/A
$240
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
$272
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$230
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
$199
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It provides a way to assess the likelihood of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on the highest recorded earthquake magnitude worldwide on that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS worldwide on October 3, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for resolution is the value displayed by USGS at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing more stringent conditions for resolution to 'Yes.'