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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 28, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 28, 2026?

Volume:
$16,432

Magnitude of at least 6.0

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 11:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,162
N/A
N/A
$1,834
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,067
N/A
N/A
$1,510
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,694
N/A
N/A
$1,271
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,322
N/A
N/A
$1,268
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,172
N/A
N/A
$973
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,361
N/A
N/A
$1,639
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,280
N/A
N/A
$1,430
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,265
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$586
N/A
N/A
$473
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$523
N/A
N/A
$391
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date. It examines the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength levels during a defined 24-hour period. The outcome depends on measured geological data from a trusted scientific source.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS during October 28, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The resolving magnitude is determined by the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving triggers. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed per contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds requiring more extreme seismic events to resolve as "Yes".