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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 22, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 22, 2026?

Volume:
$13,296

Magnitude of at least 7.0

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:14 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,226
N/A
N/A
$1,714
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,673
N/A
N/A
$1,340
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
$926
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,399
N/A
N/A
$1,249
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,370
N/A
N/A
$1,098
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,179
N/A
N/A
$1,012
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,156
N/A
N/A
$928
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,149
N/A
N/A
$980
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$909
N/A
N/A
$844
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$732
N/A
N/A
$732
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any earthquake meets or exceeds these thresholds.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the largest earthquake on October 22, 2026, anywhere in the world, reaches or exceeds specified magnitude thresholds, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0 on the Richter scale. Settlement relies on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), using the moment magnitude scale (Mw) as the primary metric, or the main magnitude type reported if Mw is unavailable. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS data is inaccessible at the time of settlement, resolution may be postponed under contractual contingencies. Each market corresponds to a distinct magnitude threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if any earthquake during the specified UTC timeframe matches or exceeds that threshold.