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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 21, 2026?

Volume:
$7,599

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 6:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$716
N/A
N/A
$611
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,619
N/A
N/A
$1,305
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,031
N/A
N/A
$761
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
$804
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$705
N/A
N/A
$430
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
$218
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$345
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
$250
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$243
N/A
N/A
$231
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$181
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the peak seismic activity recorded during a defined 24-hour period, using standardized magnitude scales to determine the outcome.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS worldwide on October 21, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value displayed at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under the contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds requiring more extreme seismic events to resolve as "Yes".