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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?

Volume:
$26,871

Magnitude of at least 6.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 20, 7:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,913
N/A
N/A
$3,692
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,834
N/A
N/A
$1,897
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,666
N/A
N/A
$2,064
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,524
N/A
N/A
$1,877
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,495
N/A
N/A
$1,942
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,182
N/A
N/A
$1,679
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,825
N/A
N/A
$1,842
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,024
N/A
N/A
$2,147
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$777
N/A
N/A
$628
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$631
N/A
N/A
$470
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, determined by measurements from a trusted scientific source. It examines different severity thresholds to assess varying levels of geological activity that might happen during that period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 20, 2026, between midnight and just before midnight UTC, meets or exceeds a specified threshold. The resolving magnitude is determined by the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, each qualifying market resolves as 'Yes.' Should the USGS ComCat database be unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed according to the contract contingencies. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0, with each market corresponding to a distinct minimum magnitude requirement.