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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 2, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 2, 2026?

Volume:
$13,677

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 2, 5:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,319
N/A
N/A
$2,225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,599
N/A
N/A
$1,914
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,945
N/A
N/A
$1,662
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,824
N/A
N/A
$932
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,567
N/A
N/A
$899
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,023
N/A
N/A
$742
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$676
N/A
N/A
$653
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$246
N/A
N/A
$197
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$212
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$198
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any quake meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 2, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred if available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed per contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different minimum magnitude requirement, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.