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419,492

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 19, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 19, 2026?

Volume:
$15,570

Magnitude of at least 5.8

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 7:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,322
N/A
N/A
$1,916
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,890
N/A
N/A
$1,873
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,426
N/A
N/A
$791
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,247
N/A
N/A
$900
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$777
N/A
N/A
$776
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,619
N/A
N/A
$1,327
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,510
N/A
N/A
$1,546
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,515
N/A
N/A
$1,027
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
$477
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$576
N/A
N/A
$388
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any quake meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 19, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specific threshold ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a distinct magnitude threshold, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.