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420,368

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026?

Volume:
$10,514

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 18, 5:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,591
N/A
N/A
$1,090
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,083
N/A
N/A
$2,023
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,683
N/A
N/A
$1,014
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,409
N/A
N/A
$1,379
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,188
N/A
N/A
$1,117
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$747
N/A
N/A
$454
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$632
N/A
N/A
$375
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$619
N/A
N/A
$614
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$156
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$199
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any quake meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the largest earthquake on October 18, 2026, as recorded by the USGS between midnight and 23:59 UTC, reaches or exceeds various magnitude thresholds ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. Settlement relies on the USGS-reported magnitude at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) used when available. If multiple quakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed per contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a specific minimum magnitude, resolving to 'Yes' if any earthquake during the period meets or exceeds that threshold.