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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 17, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 17, 2026?

Volume:
$11,500

Magnitude of at least 5.6

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 17, 6:44 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,064
N/A
N/A
$1,532
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,152
N/A
N/A
$986
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,062
N/A
N/A
$848
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,980
N/A
N/A
$1,525
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,417
N/A
N/A
$671
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$940
N/A
N/A
$906
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
$491
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$609
N/A
N/A
$355
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$438
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$196
N/A
N/A
$186
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date. The outcome depends on seismic activity measured by a recognized authority during a defined 24-hour period. It reflects real-world interest in predicting natural disasters and their potential impacts.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS anywhere in the world on October 17, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed per contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing more severe earthquake requirements.