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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 15, 2026?

Volume:
$22,577

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 7:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,601
N/A
N/A
$3,674
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,133
N/A
N/A
$1,210
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,090
N/A
N/A
$1,066
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,176
N/A
N/A
$6,775
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,795
N/A
N/A
$1,031
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$988
N/A
N/A
$856
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$808
N/A
N/A
$470
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
$342
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$159
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on recorded data from authoritative sources.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 15, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specific threshold ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed per contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a distinct magnitude threshold, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.