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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 14, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 14, 2026?

Volume:
$17,658

Magnitude of at least 5.6

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 9:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,016
N/A
N/A
$1,638
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,826
N/A
N/A
$1,575
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,741
N/A
N/A
$1,444
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,675
N/A
N/A
$877
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,663
N/A
N/A
$3,039
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,879
N/A
N/A
$1,367
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,881
N/A
N/A
$1,412
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
$596
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$677
N/A
N/A
$503
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$449
N/A
N/A
$347
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the severity of seismic activity reported by a trusted scientific source. The outcome depends on whether any tremor reaches or exceeds certain magnitude thresholds during the designated 24-hour period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 14, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specific threshold ranging from 5.2 to 7.0. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a distinct magnitude threshold, with higher thresholds representing increasingly severe seismic events.