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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 13, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 13, 2026?

Volume:
$22,559

Magnitude of at least 6.8

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 9:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,019
N/A
N/A
$2,730
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,613
N/A
N/A
$1,653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,308
N/A
N/A
$1,677
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,201
N/A
N/A
$1,802
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,083
N/A
N/A
$1,252
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,612
N/A
N/A
$1,464
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,601
N/A
N/A
$1,400
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,286
N/A
N/A
$1,256
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,014
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,821
N/A
N/A
$1,970
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on the highest recorded earthquake magnitude worldwide on that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest earthquake magnitude reported by the USGS worldwide on October 13, 2026, between midnight and 23:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value displayed at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.