TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
predict
polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?

Sep 25, 2026, 12:01 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$284,052
Volume 24h:
$77,855
217%
Liquidity:
$617,732
12%
Open interest:
$116,639N/A

↑ $4,200

 - Polymarket

↑ $4,200 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 16d:23h:35m

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?

75%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 76¢ buys you 132 shares | Odds: 75% Total Payout: $132 | Net Profit: $32 Multiplier: 1.32x | ROI: 32% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

↑ $4,200

Trade
75%
7%
Yes 76¢No 27¢
3¢
$16,615
$3,517
1,419%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↑ $4,300

Trade
51%
2%
Yes 81¢No 78.6¢
59.6¢
$35,453
$343
19%
1,980%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↑ $4,300

Trade
43%
5%
Yes 44¢No 59¢
3¢
$12,412
$13,396
8%
152%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
42.5%
Yes 62.5¢No 68.8¢
Avg: 31.3¢Max: 59.6¢
predict

↓ $4,000

Trade
44%
11%
Yes 66.2¢No 78.1¢
44.3¢
$35,379
$542
2%
1,957%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↓ $4,000

Trade
37%
2%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
$1,337
$19,980
8%
127%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
36.5%
Yes 51.6¢No 71.1¢
Avg: 22.7¢Max: 44.3¢
predict

↓ $3,900

Trade
32%
Yes 58.2¢No 93.7¢
51.9¢
$32,561
$3
172%
172%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↓ $3,900

Trade
19%
7%
Yes 21¢No 84¢
5¢
$16,539
$28,801
10%
75%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
18.5%
Yes 39.6¢No 88.9¢
Avg: 28.5¢Max: 51.9¢
predict

↑ $4,400

Trade
43%
Yes 78.5¢No 93.5¢
72¢
$33,423
$292
17%
17%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↑ $4,400

Trade
16%
2%
Yes 17¢No 85¢
2¢
$15,047
$14,631
22%
46%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
16%
Yes 47.8¢No 89.3¢
Avg: 37¢Max: 72¢
polymarket

↓ $3,800

Trade
10%
5%
Yes 11.6¢No 90.7¢
2.3¢
$16,798
$36,772
41%
91%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↓ $3,800

Trade
N/A
N/A
55.3¢
$29,711
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.5%
Yes 11.6¢No 90.7¢
Avg: 28.8¢Max: 55.3¢
polymarket

↓ $3,700

Trade
7%
5%
Yes 8.1¢No 94.4¢
2.5¢
$18,701
$21,419
39%
127%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↓ $3,700

Trade
N/A
N/A
38.1¢
$29,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.9%
Yes 8.1¢No 94.4¢
Avg: 20.3¢Max: 38.1¢
predict

↑ $4,500

Trade
29%
Yes 54.2¢No 96.8¢
51¢
$33,788
$187
346%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↑ $4,500

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$20,231
$13,471
6%
125%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.5%
Yes 30.6¢No 95.4¢
Avg: 26¢Max: 51¢
predict

↑ $4,600

Trade
21%
Yes 38.3¢No 96.9¢
35.2¢
$35,771
$31
0%
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

↑ $4,600

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.7¢No 97.7¢
1.4¢
$16,035
$9,941
0%
179%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3%
Yes 21¢No 97.3¢
Avg: 18.3¢Max: 35.2¢
polymarket

↓ $3,600

Trade
3%
Yes 4.6¢No 99.1¢
3.7¢
$18,537
$14,191
52%
149%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↓ $3,600

Trade
N/A
N/A
38.4¢
$29,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 4.6¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 21.1¢Max: 38.4¢
polymarket

↑ $4,700

Trade
2%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.7¢
1.1¢
$23,285
$16,050
0%
90%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↑ $4,700

Trade
N/A
N/A
36.8¢
$29,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.8%
Yes 2.4¢No 98.7¢
Avg: 19¢Max: 36.8¢
polymarket

↑ $4,800

Trade
1%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.2¢
1.1¢
$22,148
$17,907
40%
289%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↑ $4,800

Trade
N/A
N/A
38.3¢
$29,876
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.4%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.2¢
Avg: 19.7¢Max: 38.3¢
polymarket

↑ $4,900

Trade
1%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.3¢
0.9¢
$26,791
$12,996
9%
177%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
predict

↑ $4,900

Trade
N/A
N/A
38.3¢
$29,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.3¢
Avg: 19.6¢Max: 38.3¢
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This group of markets asks whether Gold (XAUUSD) will reach specific high or low price levels during the month of October 2026. The markets are based on 1-minute candle data from Pyth, and resolve based on whether the price is 'hit' at any point during trading sessions in October 2026. If Pyth data is unavailable, CME COMEX futures data will be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria, relying on Pyth data (or CME COMEX futures as a fallback) and the 1-minute candle 'hit' logic.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD) or, in the event of Pyth data unavailability, CME COMEX Futures (GC).

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'High' or 'Low' price of 1-minute candles for Gold (XAUUSD).
  • A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified price is reached or exceeded during a trading session in October 2026.
  • Trading sessions are defined as 6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00 PM ET to 6:00 PM ET, subject to holiday/special session adjustments.
  • Prices are used exactly as published by Pyth or CME COMEX, without rounding.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Trading: If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during October 2026, all markets will resolve to 'No'.
  • Pyth Outage: If Pyth data is unavailable, the official daily high/low price published for the COMEX Gold Futures (GC) contract will be used.
  • Contract Specification Change: If there's a change to the underlying contract or data feed, resolution will be based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the conclusion of all trading sessions in October 2026, once sufficient data from Pyth (or CME COMEX) is available to determine if the specified price was reached.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?

Predict

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on where the Gold price will land in October 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $284,052, with $42,212 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the future price of gold. Polymarket currently favors the outcome of Gold hitting a lower price point, while Predict shows a different leaning. This market provides a unique way to follow the collective wisdom of forecasters regarding the Gold price in 2026 and see how opinions evolve over time.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. These traders weigh various factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment, to arrive at their predictions. Often, prediction markets can provide an early signal of shifts in expectations that haven’t yet been fully incorporated into mainstream forecasts. The current volume of $284,052 suggests significant interest in this market, indicating a strong belief in the potential for price movement.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices for this market may differ between Polymarket and Predict due to variations in user base, trading activity, and perceived information advantages. Polymarket might attract traders with a specific expertise in commodities markets, while Predict could have a broader range of participants. These differing perspectives can lead to discrepancies in the probabilities assigned to various outcomes. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform—currently $284,052 overall—can influence price discovery. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing observed across both platforms for the Gold price in 2026.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by the average Gold (XAUUSD) price in October 2026, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will be able to see the verified result and the corresponding payout for each outcome following the resolution date. The aggregated volume of $284,052 demonstrates substantial interest in the outcome of this market.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports and interest rate decisions from central banks, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, including conflicts or trade disputes, often drive safe-haven demand for gold. Changes in global currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, also have a strong influence. Unexpected shifts in supply and demand fundamentals within the gold market itself, such as major mine discoveries or central bank gold purchases, could also move the price. With a 24-hour volume of $42,212, the market is sensitive to new information.