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410,833

Markets across

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events

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4,363

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 12, 2026?

Volume:
$33,113

Magnitude of at least 6.0

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 7:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,478
N/A
N/A
$5,398
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,331
N/A
N/A
$3,484
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,886
N/A
N/A
$3,353
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,035
N/A
N/A
$3,615
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,127
N/A
N/A
$2,127
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,918
N/A
N/A
$3,348
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,264
N/A
N/A
$1,282
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,636
N/A
N/A
$1,324
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$861
N/A
N/A
$631
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$576
N/A
N/A
$422
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether any earthquake reaching specific magnitude thresholds occurs worldwide on a single day in the future. The outcome depends on seismic activity measured by a recognized scientific authority during a defined 24-hour period. Higher threshold markets are more stringent, requiring larger seismic events to settle positively.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported by the USGS anywhere in the world during October 12, 2026 (UTC) meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Magnitude is determined using the USGS's official ComCat database at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence over other measurement types when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualifying events count toward settlement. Should the ComCat database be unavailable at the settlement time, resolution may be delayed according to contract contingencies. Thresholds range from 5.2 to 7.0, with each successive market requiring a higher magnitude to resolve as 'Yes'.