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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

Volume:
$26,461

Magnitude of at least 5.4

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 11, 12:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,067
N/A
N/A
$2,633
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,429
N/A
N/A
$3,953
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,296
N/A
N/A
$2,363
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,378
N/A
N/A
$1,667
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,922
N/A
N/A
$1,174
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,900
N/A
N/A
$1,508
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,955
N/A
N/A
$1,177
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,326
N/A
N/A
$1,159
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$804
N/A
N/A
$804
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$384
N/A
N/A
$379
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It assesses seismic activity levels against predefined thresholds to determine the outcome.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 11, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds a specified threshold. The magnitude used is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) preferred when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify. Settlement may be delayed if USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds requiring more substantial seismic events to resolve as 'Yes.'