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419,492

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 10, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 10, 2026?

Volume:
$28,006

Magnitude of at least 6.0

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 11, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,857
N/A
N/A
$4,265
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,626
N/A
N/A
$2,826
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,213
N/A
N/A
$1,302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,144
N/A
N/A
$1,722
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,809
N/A
N/A
$1,494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,855
N/A
N/A
$2,922
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,496
N/A
N/A
$2,778
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,240
N/A
N/A
$1,873
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,457
N/A
N/A
$813
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,309
N/A
N/A
$1,036
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It focuses on the intensity of seismic activity rather than location or impact. The outcome depends solely on whether any earthquake reaches or exceeds certain magnitude thresholds during the defined timeframe.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS on October 10, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving the market. If USGS ComCat data is unavailable at expiration, settlement may be delayed under contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different minimum magnitude requirement, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.