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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 1, 2026?

Volume:
$8,636

Magnitude of at least 5.2

 - Kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 30, 9:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.2

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,825
N/A
N/A
$2,825
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 7.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,865
N/A
N/A
$1,752
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,676
N/A
N/A
$1,368
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$592
N/A
N/A
$572
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
$382
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
$194
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 5.6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$213
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnitude of at least 6.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether a significant earthquake will occur on a specific date, measured by the magnitude reported by a leading geological survey. It examines the possibility of seismic activity reaching certain strength thresholds during a defined 24-hour period. Outcomes depend on whether any quake meets or exceeds these benchmarks.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the highest magnitude earthquake reported worldwide by the USGS during October 1, 2026, between midnight and 23:59:59 UTC, meets or exceeds the specified threshold. The magnitude used for settlement is the USGS-reported value at expiration, with moment magnitude (Mw) taking precedence when available. If multiple earthquakes share the highest magnitude, all qualify as resolving events. Should the USGS ComCat database be unavailable at the expiration time, settlement may be delayed according to the contract contingencies. Each market corresponds to a different magnitude threshold, ranging from 5.2 to 7.0, with higher thresholds representing increasingly rare seismic events.