TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Sep 2026 temperature increase?
kalshi

Sep 2026 temperature increase?

Volume:
$38,407

1.30001 or above

 - Kalshi

1.30001 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 15, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

1.30001 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,550
N/A
N/A
$11,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

1.24 to 1.30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,622
N/A
N/A
$3,397
Settled
No
kalshi

1.04 to 1.09

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,596
N/A
N/A
$4,571
Settled
No
kalshi

1.17 to 1.23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,135
N/A
N/A
$3,705
Settled
No
kalshi

1.02999 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,531
N/A
N/A
$2,506
Settled
No
kalshi

1.10 to 1.16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,973
N/A
N/A
$1,948
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks whether the global Land Ocean-Temperature Index will fall within any defined range during September 2026. The outcome depends entirely on where the index lands relative to preset thresholds. All possible index values are covered by the event's conditions.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the Land Ocean-Temperature Index value for September 2026, with every possible outcome covered across six distinct ranges. Regardless of how the index performs—whether it falls just below 1.03, lands anywhere between 1.04 and 1.30, or exceeds 1.30—the market will resolve to Yes. No scenario exists in which the market resolves to No, as all numerical possibilities are explicitly included in the primary rules. The structure ensures a definitive resolution based solely on the index's value for that month.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the temperature data for September 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect whether observed temperature anomalies meet the defined threshold, closing the market based on objective, widely accepted sources. Timing aligns with the end of the Northern Hemisphere's warmest season for that year.

Key signals include monthly global temperature releases from trusted climate agencies, unexpected extreme weather events, and significant policy shifts on emissions or carbon pricing. Natural phenomena like El Niño developments or volcanic activity could also influence projections. As Oct 17, 2026 approaches, any data suggesting faster or slower warming trends will drive rapid price adjustments among traders on Kalshi.