TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Rain in Houston in Aug 2026?
kalshi

Rain in Houston in Aug 2026?

Volume:
$104,403

Above 2 inches

 - Kalshi

Above 2 inches - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2 inches

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,455
N/A
N/A
$13,855
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1 inch

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$28,841
N/A
N/A
$28,351
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3 inches

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,337
N/A
N/A
$8,554
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4 inches

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,006
N/A
N/A
$4,647
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5 inches

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,820
N/A
N/A
$1,751
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7 inches

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,383
N/A
N/A
$2,002
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6 inches

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
$498
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This set of markets assesses the likelihood of varying levels of rainfall in Houston during August 2026. Outcomes depend on measured precipitation totals at a specific weather station, offering different thresholds for market resolution.

Kalshi

These markets determine whether the total precipitation measured at the CLIHOU station in Houston during August 2026 exceeds specified inch thresholds (1 through 7 inches). Resolution hinges on official data from the National Weather Service Climatological Report for Houston-Hobby, TX, accessed via the provided URL. All markets share identical data sources and secondary disclaimers regarding data reliability, preliminary reporting nuances, and potential rounding or conversion inconsistencies in NWS measurements. Traders must rely exclusively on the final NWS-reported values, as third-party weather services may not align with the authoritative source. The outcome for each market is binary: Yes if the August total strictly exceeds its threshold, No otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Houston August rain market on Kalshi tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $31,386. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of rain in Houston during August, updating continuously as new information emerges. This single-venue view reflects the current market sentiment and trading activity without combining data from any other source.

Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a blend of expert projections and trader sentiment. While analysts may issue detailed climate reports, prediction market prices incorporate real-time betting dynamics and can shift quickly with new weather models or atmospheric conditions. Traders may assign different weight to various signals than traditional forecasters, leading to divergence in implied probabilities.

This market resolves around Sep 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Meteorologists, government weather services, and authoritative news outlets will provide the data needed to determine whether rain occurred in Houston during August. The market settles based on objective, publicly available records, ensuring a clear and transparent resolution process.

Several signals could shift trading activity in this market before resolution. Early-season storm forecasts, updates from regional climate models, and government weather alerts may cause rapid price changes. Additionally, unexpected shifts in atmospheric patterns, such as the emergence of an El Niño or La Niña event, could influence traders’ expectations. High volume periods often coincide with these updates, reflecting heightened interest and uncertainty.