TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Seoul will receive between 110-120mm of total precipitation during June 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 79.0%. Resolution will be determined by the Korea Meteorological Administration's official monthly precipitation data for Seoul, measured to one decimal place and finalized by September 7, 2026. Watch for the KMA's official precipitation report for June 2026 to determine whether Seoul falls within this specific rainfall bracket.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in June, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of June at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of June 2026. If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the end of June and the close of the trading period. Resolution is determined by official precipitation measurements recorded for Seoul during the month of June. The specific outcome—whether Seoul receives between 130–140mm or falls into another precipitation band—is verified against authoritative meteorological data. Once the resolution criteria are met and confirmed, the market settles and winning positions are paid out accordingly. Traders should monitor official weather station reports as June progresses to anticipate the likely resolution.
Several factors could shift market odds for Seoul's June precipitation. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in monsoon timing, tropical cyclone activity, or atmospheric pressure systems—typically trigger significant price moves. Real-time precipitation data released throughout June will provide concrete evidence, causing traders to adjust positions as the month unfolds. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, changes in ocean temperatures, and historical analogues to past wet or dry Junes can also influence trader sentiment. Early June rainfall totals will be especially influential, as they establish momentum toward or away from the 130–140mm target.