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410,833

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Precipitation in NYC in October?
polymarket
kalshi

Precipitation in NYC in October?

Volume:
$72,671

<3"

 - Polymarket

<3" - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 8:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<3"

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
kalshi

Above 2 inches

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,756
N/A
N/A
$2,412
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1 inches

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$738
N/A
N/A
$625
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3 inches

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,960
N/A
N/A
$3,216
Settled
No
polymarket

3-4.25"

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,610
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above 4 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,255
N/A
N/A
$1,582
Settled
No
polymarket

>6.25"

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,758
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

4.75-5.25"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,922
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above 5 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,854
N/A
N/A
$1,841
Settled
No
polymarket

4.25-4.75"

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

5.25-6.25"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Above 6 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$870
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$185
N/A
N/A
$180
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This group asks whether the total precipitation in New York City (specifically Central Park) during the month of October 2026 will exceed certain thresholds. The markets are designed to predict the amount of rainfall, with different platforms offering markets based on various precipitation ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a series of binary 'greater than X inches' markets, while Polymarket offers markets on specific precipitation ranges. This difference in market structure and threshold definition creates a divergence.Hero tip: Focus on the specific question being asked by each market. Kalshi's markets are best for directional bets (above/below a threshold), while Polymarket's markets allow for more nuanced predictions about the expected precipitation amount.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers markets on whether precipitation will fall *within* specific ranges or *below* a certain amount, using NOAA data to 2 decimal places. Resolves based on the NOAA figure for Central Park, NY.
  • Kalshi: Offers a series of binary markets that resolve 'Yes' if precipitation exceeds a given threshold (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 inches). No specific precision stated, but implied to be at least 1 inch.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple precipitation thresholds for Central Park, NYC, during October 2026, each defining a separate resolution criterion. All markets share the same geographic location and time frame but apply progressively higher inch-based thresholds (1", 2", 3", and 4"). Resolution occurs when the measured total monthly precipitation exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, with no partial credit between tiers. The event uses strict greater-than comparisons, meaning exact threshold matches do not trigger resolution. All outcomes are binary (Yes/No) based solely on whether observed rainfall crosses each individual threshold line.