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Precipitation in NYC in June?
kalshi
polymarket

Precipitation in NYC in June?

Volume:
$159,928

Above 1 inch

 - Kalshi

Above 1 inch - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1 inch

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,490
N/A
N/A
$7,593
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3-4"

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,896
N/A
N/A
$9,836
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,251
N/A
N/A
$17,949
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,948
N/A
N/A
$7,175
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,304
N/A
N/A
$7,071
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,258
N/A
N/A
$6,658
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4 inches

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,154
N/A
N/A
$5,551
Settled
No
polymarket

2-3"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<2"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>6"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-6"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4-5"

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group asks whether New York City will experience precipitation in June 2026. However, the two platforms define the question differently: Kalshi measures precipitation in Miami (not NYC), while Polymarket measures precipitation in NYC's Central Park. This creates a fundamental geographic divergence that makes direct comparison impossible.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Geographic mismatch: Kalshi resolves on Miami precipitation while Polymarket resolves on NYC (Central Park) precipitation. The event group title claims NYC but Kalshi data is from Miami, making one platform fundamentally misaligned with the stated event.Hero tip: This divergence is not a minor threshold difference—it is a geographic error. Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring weather in two different cities 1,200 miles apart. Confirm your broker's intent. If the event is truly about NYC, Kalshi should not be included in this group. If Kalshi is correct, the group title must be corrected to reflect Miami.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on Miami precipitation (CLIMIA station) for June 2026. Seven overlapping YES thresholds (>1, >2, >3, >4, >5, >6, >7 inches). No explicit NO condition; any precipitation below 1 inch would resolve NO. Precision not specified.
  • Polymarket: Resolves on Central Park, NYC precipitation via NOAA for June 1-30, 2026. Six distinct bracket-based outcomes: <2 inches, 2-3 inches, 3-4 inches, 4-5 inches, 5-6 inches, >6 inches. Precision: 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54). Ties round to higher bracket.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between June 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for June 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of June 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by total precipitation at CLIMIA in Miami during June 2026, measured against seven escalating thresholds: strictly greater than 1 inch, 2 inches, 3 inches, 4 inches, 5 inches, 6 inches, or 7 inches. Official data comes from the National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) accessible via the Miami NWS office website, navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Miami, FL with Daily Climate Report. Traders should rely on the final NWS Climatological Report rather than preliminary reports or third-party weather services, as measurement methods and rounding conventions may affect reported values. Data updates occur at varying frequencies depending on reporting schedules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for precipitation outcomes in New York City during June across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the current implied probability of each outcome, cumulative trading volume, and consensus shifts as new information emerges. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, you gain a cross-market view of how traders are pricing precipitation risk, helping you identify where the market leans on whether NYC will experience measurable rainfall during the month.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, while meteorological forecasts come from models and expert analysis. Markets often incorporate broader information—including long-range climate patterns, historical June rainfall in NYC, and trader positioning—that may diverge from single-model predictions. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more or less precipitation risk than official forecasts suggest, offering insight into market sentiment versus institutional guidance.

Key catalysts include updated seasonal climate forecasts, historical June rainfall patterns, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and real-time weather models as June approaches. Tropical storm activity, jet-stream positioning, and Atlantic hurricane season development can all influence precipitation odds. Additionally, early June rainfall will provide concrete data that traders incorporate into their positions, causing sharp repricing. Monitor National Weather Service updates and long-range outlooks for signals that may shift market consensus on NYC precipitation likelihood.