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Precipitation in London in June?
polymarket

Precipitation in London in June?

Volume:
$12,554

80mm+

 - Polymarket

80mm+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

80mm+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.7¢
N/A
$4,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<30mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-80mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-40mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-70mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether London will experience below-average rainfall during June 2026, measured by total precipitation at Heathrow Airport. The leading outcome—less than 30mm of precipitation—currently stands at 65.0% on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by the Met Office's official precipitation data for June 2026 from the Heathrow weather station, with the Provisional monthly figure serving as the basis for settlement. Watch for the Met Office's release of June 2026 precipitation data, expected by late June 2026, to confirm whether London stays drier than the 30mm threshold.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in June, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for June 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of June 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Precipitation in London in June event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $3,190. The dashboard aggregates order book depth, recent trades, and liquidity metrics to help traders monitor market sentiment around whether London will experience less than 30mm of precipitation during June. Total group volume stands at $10,564, reflecting sustained trader interest in this weather prediction market.

The Precipitation in London in June market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, marking the end of June. Resolution is determined by official precipitation measurements recorded for London during the entire month. The outcome hinges on whether cumulative rainfall falls below or meets/exceeds the 30mm threshold specified in the contract. Traders should monitor meteorological data sources and weather station reports as the end date approaches to assess the likelihood of resolution in either direction.

Several factors could shift odds for this market before Jun 30, 2026. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in Atlantic storm tracks or jet stream positioning, would alter rainfall expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies could signal wetter or drier conditions ahead. Real-time precipitation data accumulating through June will provide concrete evidence, pushing prices toward resolution. El Niño or La Niña developments, North Atlantic Oscillation phases, and blocking high-pressure systems all influence European rainfall. Traders monitor long-range forecasts, historical June precipitation records, and emerging weather models to adjust positions.