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Precipitation in London in August?
polymarket

Precipitation in London in August?

Volume:
$12,381

<30mm

 - Polymarket

<30mm - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 1:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<30mm

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60-70mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-40mm

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-50mm

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80mm+

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-60mm

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$606
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-80mm

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the London August rain market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price fluctuations, and 24-hour volume of $1,868. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of specific precipitation levels in London during August. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and liquidity, giving users a clear view of betting patterns and volume trends as the event approaches.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market currently reflects a different outlook. While analysts may offer detailed climate projections, traders on Polymarket are pricing in their own expectations, which can diverge based on recent weather patterns, seasonal trends, and betting dynamics. The current odds show a distinct position that may align more or less closely with expert predictions, depending on recent shifts in market sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by official meteorological data for August, matching the defined precipitation range. Until then, traders can adjust positions as new weather forecasts and real-time conditions emerge, influencing odds in the final days before settlement.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 1, 2026. Early-month weather patterns, updated seasonal forecasts from major climate agencies, and extreme events like storms or prolonged dry spells can all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any significant changes in historical precipitation comparisons or regional climate anomalies may cause rapid re-pricing, especially as August progresses and the resolution date approaches.