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Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?
polymarket

Precipitation in Hong Kong in October?

Volume:
$63,652

70-120mm

 - Polymarket

70-120mm - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 11:34 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

70-120mm

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,487
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
Yes
polymarket

120-210mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,982
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

210mm+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,541
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

50-70mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

40-50mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

<20mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
polymarket

20-40mm

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Hong Kong rainfall market dashboard provides real-time insights into how traders are pricing the likelihood of different precipitation levels in Hong Kong during October. You can view the current odds for each possible outcome, observe the price history to understand market sentiment shifts, and monitor the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,289. The total volume traded on this market is $63,652. This allows for a clear understanding of where the crowd believes the most probable rainfall amount will fall.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of a specific rainfall range, but it's important to consider how this compares to expert meteorological predictions. Traditional weather analysts and climate models offer forecasts based on historical data and complex simulations. Comparing these forecasts to the collective wisdom reflected in this market can reveal interesting discrepancies or agreements. If analyst forecasts significantly diverge from the market's implied probability, it may signal an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on potential mispricing.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the actual precipitation levels in Hong Kong during October are verifiable from credible public reporting. Official meteorological data released by recognized weather agencies will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The market will then settle based on which outcome most accurately reflects the recorded rainfall amount, providing a clear and objective resolution to the prediction. Traders should monitor official sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before it resolves. Major weather events, such as the formation of a typhoon near Hong Kong, would likely cause significant price movements. Updates from meteorological agencies regarding long-range forecasts and seasonal outlooks could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected changes in climate patterns or anomalies in regional weather systems could prompt traders to reassess their probabilities. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about weather-related news will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.