TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October
polymarket

What will be the peak wind gust in October?

Volume:
$7,712

96 km/h or above

 - Polymarket

96 km/h or above - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 1:03 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

96 km/h or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

86 to 95 km/h

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

85 km/h or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=10&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value. If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=10&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value. If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the world's windiest city market displays the current probabilities of different peak wind gust ranges occurring in October. You can view the implied probabilities for each outcome, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, which is currently $525. The total volume traded on this market to date is $7,661. The dashboard also provides a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has evolved over time and assess trader sentiment regarding the peak wind speed in Wellington during the specified period.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of peak wind gusts falling within a specific range. This contrasts with initial analyst forecasts, which were more dispersed and indicated a wider range of potential outcomes. However, it’s important to remember that prediction market prices reflect the collective wisdom of traders, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts. As new data emerges, the market will dynamically adjust, potentially aligning more closely with or diverging further from expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price discovery process is driven by supply and demand; as more traders bet on a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest recorded wind gust in Wellington, New Zealand, during the month of October. Data will be sourced from official meteorological agencies and publicly available weather records to ensure accuracy and transparency. The specific gust speed that occurs will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting El Niño or La Niña conditions, could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in atmospheric pressure systems or the development of strong storms near New Zealand would also be major catalysts. Additionally, any news regarding changes to weather monitoring equipment or reporting procedures in Wellington could impact the market. The release of historical wind data or revised climate models could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.