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Paris heat wave by July 31?
polymarket

Paris heat wave by July 31?

Volume:
$856

Paris heat wave by July 31?

 - Polymarket

Paris heat wave by July 31? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 7:59 PM EST

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Paris heat wave by July 31?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$856
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station is greater than or equal to 35 degrees Celsius for all of 3 consecutive calendar days by July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on the relevant days for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded for each date within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Paris heat wave market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether extreme heat will strike the French capital by the end of July 2026. Traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes, with the current price reflecting the collective forecast. The dashboard displays live odds, 24-hour volume of $556, and historical price movements, giving you a transparent view of how market participants are pricing this climate event as it unfolds.

Prediction markets like this one aggregate real-money bets from traders worldwide, often revealing signals that differ from traditional weather forecasts or climate analyst reports. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, market participants factor in broader information—media coverage, seasonal patterns, and expert commentary—into their trading decisions. This market's odds reflect a decentralized consensus that can sometimes diverge from or validate official forecasts, offering an alternative lens on the likelihood of a Paris heat wave by late July.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through continuous order-book trading, where buy and sell orders determine the price of yes and no shares. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the outcome, and the current price—expressed as a percentage—reflects the market's implied probability. Higher prices indicate stronger trader conviction that a heat wave will occur; lower prices suggest skepticism. Liquidity and trading volume influence how easily prices move, with deeper order books allowing larger trades with less slippage.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources to determine whether a heat wave occurred in Paris by that date. The resolution hinges on verified meteorological and news reporting rather than any single forecast or model. Once the event window closes, the platform will settle all shares based on the factual record, paying out holders of the winning side and returning nothing to the other.

Several catalysts could shift odds in this market: seasonal weather pattern updates, long-range forecasts from major meteorological agencies, historical heat records for Paris in early summer, and real-time temperature spikes as July approaches. Media coverage of extreme weather elsewhere in Europe may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any official heat warnings or emergency declarations from French authorities could trigger sharp price movements. Early summer conditions and atmospheric pressure systems developing over the continent will be closely watched by traders positioning ahead of the resolution date.