Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 7, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as binary or range-based contracts, where each contract reflects the market's probability of that temperature threshold occurring. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price directly representing the implied probability. As new information emerges—such as updated seasonal forecasts or climate patterns—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The continuous order book on Kalshi ensures transparent price discovery for this weather event.

The market resolves on Jun 8, 2026, after the lowest temperature for June 7, 2026 in Washington DC has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official temperature data from a designated weather source, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Once the event concludes and data is confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on which outcome occurred. The exact resolution criteria and data source are specified in the market's terms at launch.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 7, 2026. Updated seasonal climate forecasts, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and long-range weather models will influence trader expectations. Major atmospheric events—such as unusual jet stream positioning or tropical systems—can alter temperature predictions weeks in advance. As June approaches, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, typically triggering sharper price movements. Real-time weather alerts and anomalies in spring temperatures leading up to the event will also drive trading activity and repricing of outcomes.