Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 5, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional weather forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and meteorological analysts. While NWS models provide deterministic temperature ranges, prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into probabilistic odds that can shift rapidly as new data emerges. Markets may price in tail risks or consensus shifts that analysts have not yet incorporated, making side-by-side comparison useful for identifying where professional forecasters and traders disagree on June 5 conditions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Washington DC on June 5 is priced as a series of binary outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or range. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As traders update their views based on seasonal patterns, atmospheric models, and real-time weather data, contract prices adjust dynamically to reflect evolving market consensus on the day's minimum temperature.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after June 5, 2026 concludes. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Washington DC on that date. The specific measurement source and methodology are established in the market's terms at launch. Once the day ends and the official low is confirmed, the contract corresponding to the correct temperature outcome is settled at 100 cents, and all other outcomes resolve to zero.

Several factors can shift odds before June 5, 2026. Updated seasonal forecasts and long-range weather models will refine expectations as the date approaches. Major atmospheric patterns—such as cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or tropical influences—can dramatically alter minimum temperature expectations. Historical climate data and typical June conditions in DC also anchor trader positioning. As the event date draws closer, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price moves. Real-time weather alerts and model consensus shifts in the final days will likely drive the most significant trading activity.