Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information, often diverging from traditional weather analyst forecasts. While meteorologists issue deterministic point estimates or narrow ranges, this market prices uncertainty across a full spectrum of outcomes, revealing where traders see tail risks or consensus gaps. Comparing the implied probability of extreme lows or mild conditions in this market to published seasonal forecasts can highlight where professional models and market participants disagree on June 28 conditions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket has its own bid-ask spread, and the price of a share reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new information emerges—seasonal models, atmospheric patterns, or real-time weather data—traders adjust positions, moving prices and revealing updated market consensus on the likelihood of each temperature outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once June 28, 2026 has passed and the day's low temperature is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the actual recorded minimum temperature in Washington DC on that date, confirmed through established meteorological data sources. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome bracket at resolution receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Major seasonal climate patterns, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and long-range atmospheric forecasts published closer to June 2026 will drive significant price swings in this market. Real-time weather model updates, stratospheric anomalies, or shifts in the jet stream could trigger sharp repricing of extreme-low or mild-temperature outcomes. Additionally, historical temperature records for late June in DC and any unusual warming or cooling trends in the preceding months will influence trader positioning and market odds.