Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 20, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on numerical models, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to be accurate. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological authorities can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to differ from model consensus. Such gaps sometimes signal emerging uncertainty or contrarian views about atmospheric patterns.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each temperature outcome bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the marginal probability assigned by the last matched trade, and you can enter limit or market orders to express your view. Tighter spreads indicate higher confidence and liquidity around certain temperature thresholds, while wider spreads suggest uncertainty or lighter trading interest. As new information arrives—updated forecasts, seasonal patterns, or real-time atmospheric data—prices adjust dynamically.

This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, after June 20 has passed and the actual overnight low temperature in Washington DC can be verified. The outcome is confirmed once credible public reporting—such as official National Weather Service records or established meteorological databases—documents the lowest temperature recorded during that calendar day. Once the data is published and verified, the market settles automatically, and winning shares are credited to traders who correctly predicted the temperature range.

Updated weather forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies will likely shift odds as the event date draws closer. Major atmospheric patterns—such as the arrival of a cold front, high-pressure system, or tropical moisture—can trigger repricing across all temperature brackets. Real-time model consensus changes, seasonal anomalies, or unexpected shifts in the jet stream may also prompt traders to adjust positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and recent local weather trends could influence how traders assess the probability of extreme lows versus moderate overnight temperatures.